中国能源前景2020

中国能源前景2020

中国能源前景报告封面中国的能源和排放趋势

中国是世界上最大的消费者和生产者的主要能源和世界最大的能源相关碳二氧化碳发射器(CO2)。中国超过了美国的主要能耗在2010年和在CO2在2006年的排放。2018年,中国是负责任的for 21% of total global primary energy use (IEA, 2019a) and about 29% of global energy-related CO2emissions (IEA, 2019b).

China’s 1.4 billion people consume energy to meet their daily needs, including heating and cooling of their living and working places, fuel for cooking their meals, electricity to power their appliances and equipment, and fuels for both their own personal transportation as well as the products they purchase.

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第1章| China's Current Energy and Emissions Trends

第1章呈现最新数据China’s Current Energy and Emissions Trends,涵盖能源消耗,能源生产和与能源相关的合作2排放。亚博下载地址伯克利实验室的中国能源集团已发表中国能源数据库, a fully relational database of national and provincial energy balances, plus detailed sectoral energy end-use tables developed in Microsoft Access containing over 120,000 data points, since 1992. Berkeley Lab’s China Energy Group has also published an accompanying关键中国能源统计booklet with selected figures and tables from the数据库that summarizes key energy data.

第一章细节

Residential and commercial buildings have consumed roughly 20% of primary energy use for more than two decades, with building energy consumption nearly tripling since 2000. China has been rapidly building new urban residential and commercial buildings over the past two decades. Energy used to heat, cool, cook, and power appliances and equipment in residential and commercial buildings increased during this period due to China’s growing middle-class, improved standard of living, and rapid urbanization.

Energy use to transport China’s residents as well as raw materials (e.g. coal), manufactured products, and other goods has increased significantly, growing from consumption of 28.95 million tons of coal equivalent (Mtce) - a 5% share - in 1980 to 368.54 Mtce – a 9% share - in 2018, or 9.7% on an adjusted basis. China’s electric vehicle market began to grow in 2011, gained momentum in 2014, and was further boosted in 2015 with significant government financial support. The sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs), which includes battery electric vehicles, hybrid vehicles, fuel-cell electric vehicles, hydrogen vehicles, and other new energy vehicles grew 114% per year on average from 2011 to 2018 and now account for almost 6% of China’s passenger car market.

能源进一步用于中国制造车辆和消费品,以及用于建造中国建筑,道路,桥梁等基础设施的建筑材料。虽然中国出口制造产品和消费品,但大多数这些都在中国消耗,以支持国内需求。中国的工业部门不仅是最大的经济部门,迄今为止初级能源消耗较小,但其总能源使用份额仍然相对较不变,自1980年以来的67%和73%波动,从2013年到2018年达到70%。

满足这些消费者需求所需的能量均在国内和进口生产。中国拥有丰富的国内煤炭资源和煤炭是中国的主导燃料来源,不仅用于电力的生产,而且作为中国庞大的工业部门的能源来源,这一直负责中国的主要能源消耗的大约70%。但是使用天然气和油正在迅速增长,特别是在建筑物和运输部门。

Overall, China’s energy structure is electrifying, growing from a share of 19% electricity in total final energy use in 2010 to 23% in 2017. The buildings sector is approaching 30% electrification – up from 25% in 2010 – followed by industry at nearly 25%, with transport at a mere 4% in 2017. While still dominated by fossil fuels, recent growth in China’s electricity generation capacity has mostly been in solar, wind, hydro, and nuclear power - also to meet the growing demands of the industrial, buildings, and transport sectors. The share of non-fossil energy (renewable electricity plus nuclear) in total primary energy consumption has grown from 6.2% in 2000 to 12.3% in 2017, and it is reported to have reached 14.3% in 2018 (Liu, 2019).

这些趋势也意味着中国的脱碳,每单位能耗二氧化碳排放量 - 从1980年至1995年以大约2.5 GCO2 / GCE的速度保持稳定,然后在2010年的2.5和2.4 GCO2 / GCE之间波动 - 最近在下降目前值为2.19 GCO2 / GCE的速率相对较快,它在中国的最低价值。与全球平均水平(1.63 GCO2 / GCE),美国(1.53 GCO2 / GCE)和欧洲(1.37 GCO2 / GCE)(IEA,2019C)相比,中国的价值仍然很高。

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第2章| China's Key Targets, Policies, and Programs

第2章presents the most recent information available onChina’s Key Energy Targets, Policies, and Programs,涵盖了中国的能源和与能源有关的排放承诺在13中th五年计划(2016 - 2020),全国不同ned Contributions to the Paris Agreement, and other documents as well as providing an update on 42 policies and programs currently in place in China focused on energy and related emissions. This chapter builds on the China Energy Group’s 30+ years of policy and program development, implementation, and analysis in China and is augmented by information provided through 18 interviews with research staff and policymakers in China.

第二章细节

During China’s 13thFYP period (2016-2020), energy intensity and CO2分别为2020年分别建立了15%和18%的发射强度降低靶标,目的是从非化石来源具有大约15%的总机能量。在13次发布后thFYP, an energy development plan under the 13thFYP was announced (NDRC, 2016a). This plan established several key goals for 2020, including limiting China’s total energy consumption to under 5 billion tonnes of coal equivalent (Btce) and capping the total coal consumption within 4.1 Btce by 2020. The plan also calls for increasing the share of non-fossil energy consumption to 15% and above by 2020 while reducing the share of coal in total energy use to below 58%.

中国似乎正在追踪其所有关键的关键13thFYP 2020 Energy and Co2emissions goals, except the services sector share of value added which was 52.2% in 2018, just slightly behind the value needed to keep on a steady pace to the goal of 56%.

中国似乎正在追踪其所有关键的关键13thFYP 2020 Energy and Co2emissions goals, except the services sector share of value added which was 52.2% in 2018, just slightly behind the value needed to keep on a steady pace to the goal of 56%. Regarding installed capacity for renewable electricity sources, China installed 175 GW of solar by 2018, exceeding the 2020 goal of 110 GW. China is on track to meet or exceed the hydropower capacity goal (352 GW installed; 2020 goal of 380 GW), wind power capacity goal (184 GW installed; 2020 goal of 210 GW), and the nuclear power capacity goal (45 GW installed; 2020 goals of 58 GW).

In April 2017, China released theEnergy Supply and Consumption Revolution Strategy (2016-2030)that reiterates a number of its 2020 national energy goals and also sets additional goals for 2030 (NDRC and NEA, 2016). The new 2030 goals are to cap China’s absolute primary energy consumption at or below 6,000 Mtce, increase the share of non-fossil energy in total primary energy to 20%, increase the share of natural gas in total primary energy consumption to 15%, and strive to have 50% of total power generation from non-fossil sources.

中国的特定巴黎协议通过其国家决定的捐款(NDCS)传达的承诺包括卓越的公司22030年左右的排放,并尽最大努力提高达到峰值,并将非化石燃料的份额增加到2030点到20%左右。

In September 2016, China ratified the巴黎协议这使得参与缔约方“将全球平均气温的增加远低于2°C以上预工业水平,并追求将温度增加到1.5°C以上预工业水平”(UN,2018A)。中国的特定巴黎协议通过其国家决定的捐款(NDCS)传达的承诺包括卓越的公司22030年左右的排放,并尽最大努力提高达到峰值,并将非化石燃料的份额增加到2030点到20%左右。

China is steadily making progress on both the non-fossil share and CO2emissions intensity goals. In 2018, the share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption – using China’s power plant coal consumption conversion methodology – was 13.8%, which is on pace to reach the 2020 goal of 15%. China’s energy-related CO2emissions per unit of GDP relative to 2005 have dropped an estimated 47% as of the end of 2018, which is on track to meet the goal of reducing CO2排放强度达到2030年的60%-65%。

截至2018年底,中国的能源相关的CO2排放量继续增长,主要是由于2017年至2018年期间化石燃料的燃烧增加,目前估计刚刚超过10个GTCO2,在2015年的价值增加4%。这一最近的能源相关CO的增长2emissions will need to peak and begin to decline in the next decade if China is going to realize a peak in CO22030年或更早的排放。

To achieve its myriad domestic and international energy-related goals, China has established many policies and programs at the national, subnational, and sectoral levels. Some of these are relatively new while others are continuations of long-standing efforts. Some are just now in the pilot stage while others started as pilots and are now larger efforts.

审查目前在中国的42个选定政策和方案专注于能源和相关的排放,发现中国依赖各种工具来实现其目标,包括监管/行政,经济,信息,自愿和励志政策和计划。

超过一半的审查政策是主要的监管/行政自然界。这些24个强制性政策在所有部门都有发现,并且一般成功,但有些人正在挣扎,而其他人则在试点阶段。强制性政策的例子包括用于轻型和重型车辆的设备能效标准和燃油经济性标准。为了补充这些强制性方法,中国也在15个政策中使用志愿组分来鼓励更灵活的方式。志愿部件的政策的例子包括低碳试验城市和省份和能效顶级流行者计划。十五个政策主要是经济或包括补贴等经济组件,支持整体计划目标。例子包括中国2025年制造的国家排放交易计划,以及新能源汽车的补贴。其他策略也部署包括信息(18),其目的是影响消费者选择和动机来鼓励方案参与。


第3章|中国未来的能源前景

Chapter 3presents a Continuous Improvement Scenario of中国未来的能源前景到2050年,建模中国在能源使用和与能源相关的CO方面实现的内容2emissions with adoption of the maximum shares of commercially available, cost-effective energy efficiency and renewable energy supply by 2050. This scenario is built using the China Energy Group’s China 2050需求资源能源分析模型(梦想)在过去的15年里与许多国际和中国研究人员合作开发的。

Chapter Three Details

Looking forward to 2050, a Continuous Improvement Scenario of China’s future energy outlook is developed using a detailed bottom-up energy end-use model (China 2050 DREAM) and assuming China adopts the maximum shares of today’s commercially available, cost-effective energy efficiency and renewable energy supply by 2050. Under this scenario, China’s primary energy consumption peaks in 2029 at 5,400 Mtce and reaches a non-fossil share of 29% in primary energy by 2050 using the direct equivalent method for conversion.

按部门,主要能源使用峰值2025年为工业,2034年建筑物,2035次运输。In the power sector, generation from renewables and other non-fossil fuels replace thermal generation when environmental merit dispatch is utilized, with non-fossil sources generating 89% of China’s electricity in 2050. With energy efficiency and fuel switching (especially electrification) in the energy end use sectors and decarbonization of the power system, China’s CO22025年的排放峰值为10,930米2and declines to 5,010 MtCO2到2050年22019年前行业峰值的排放量为2030年,建筑物2030年,到2035年进行运输。

Chapter 3 Charts-Web_v1_Figure 3-7.jpg

Compared to similarly defined scenarios in the latest projections by 9 other international and China-based organizations, the 2050 Continuous Improvement Scenario has a notably different shape in primary energy use trend than other projections, with plateauing in the mid-2025s, peak in 2029, and significant declines thereafter. Only two other Chinese studies project a peak in primary energy use between 2025-2030, and none of the other similar scenarios show a marked decline in energy use prior to 2050. Given similar trends in the near-term, this divergence in trend is likely due to more aggressive efficiency and fuel switching assumptions and accounting of more saturation effects in the China Energy Outlook 2050 Continuous Improvement Scenario.

在能量相关的CO方面2emissions, the Continuous Improvement Scenario finds a 2025 CO2高峰年与其他两个国际和中国组织的预测一致,但在较高的高峰水平。与两个中国组织的预测类似,持续改进情景也发现了CO的迅速下降22030年后的排放,但有一个2050 co2level that is lower than nearly all the other studies. The Continuous Improvement Scenario’s projected non-fossil shares of total power generation are very similar to two other international projections for 2025 and 2030, but 10 percentage points higher in 2040 and 2050 than other studies.

总体而言,本报告显示,在2015-2016期间,能源使用和能源相关排放的时期正在练习或略微下降,中国的能源消耗和有限公司2emissions are increasing again as demand grows to meet the needs of China’s urbanizing consumers. China has many policies and programs in place to address this growth that rely on all sorts of approaches from mandatory to voluntary and including economic instruments, informational campaigns, and motivational tactics. Considering the varying effectiveness of these policies and programs, a scenario of continuous improvement shows that indeed, Chinese energy use and CO2排放将分别继续增加2029年和2025年。

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Suggested Citation: Zhou, N., Lu, H., Khanna, N., Liu, X., Fridley, D., Price, L., Shen, B., Feng, W., Lin, J., Szum, C., Ding, C., 2020. China Energy Outlook: Understanding China’s Energy and Emissions Trends. Berkeley, CA: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory.

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